Universo Treviso Basket vs. Pallacanestro Reggiana

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Universo Treviso Basket (63%) · Universo Treviso Basket at 100¢ · $549 held · ends Nov 7

Universo Treviso Basket>99¢Pallacanestro Reggiana<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Universo Treviso Basket

Consensus Traders

Universo Treviso Basket 63%

Total Value

$548.69

Combined PnL

-$259.07

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUniverso Treviso Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Universo Treviso Basket

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Universo Treviso Basket100%

Pallacanestro Reggiana0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Universo Treviso Basket5 traders

Total Value$492.79

Total Shares916

Combined PnL-$292.51

Pallacanestro Reggiana3 traders

Total Value$55.91

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$33.45

Universo Treviso Basket — 63%Pallacanestro Reggiana — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Universo Treviso Basketavg 99.9¢	$320.76	$160.54	-$160.22	99% 10965-69 (11034)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Universo Treviso Basketavg 85¢	$181.2	$135	-$46.2	48% 948-1024 (1972)
OM omnibus-076daa	Universo Treviso Basketavg 74.7¢	$153.07	$102.5	-$50.57	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
UP UpTheBlues	Universo Treviso Basketavg 68.4¢	$127.97	$93.5	-$34.47	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
poshposhCTR<$100	Pallacanestro Reggianaavg 10.8¢	$6.44	$29.91	+$23.47	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR<$100	Pallacanestro Reggianaavg 31.4¢	$15.7	$25	+$9.3	60% 883-578 (1461)
HRTrading<$100	Universo Treviso Basketavg 91.9¢	$2.31	$1.26	-$1.05	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Pallacanestro Reggianaavg 16¢	$0.32	$1	+$0.68	51% 6026-5729 (11755)

looppau

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$320.76

Value

$160.54

PnL

-$160.22

Record

99%

10965-69 (11034)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$181.2

Value

$135

PnL

-$46.2

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

omnibus-076daa

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$153.07

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$50.57

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

UpTheBlues

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$127.97

Value

$93.5

PnL

-$34.47

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

poshposhCTR<$100

Pallacanestro Reggiana

Invested

$6.44

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$23.47

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

lukibazdonauki754CTR<$100

Pallacanestro Reggiana

Invested

$15.7

Value

$25

PnL

+$9.3

Record

60%

883-578 (1461)

HRTrading<$100

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$2.31

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Pallacanestro Reggiana

Invested

$0.32

Value

PnL

+$0.68

Record

51%

6026-5729 (11755)

Research grade

AvoidUniverso Treviso Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Universo Treviso Basket

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Universo Treviso Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.