Scaligera Basket Verona vs. Pallacanestro Varese

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pallacanestro Varese (63%) · Pallacanestro Varese at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Scaligera Basket Verona<1¢Pallacanestro Varese>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pallacanestro Varese

Consensus Traders

Pallacanestro Varese 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$102.82

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPallacanestro Varese at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pallacanestro Varese

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Scaligera Basket Verona0%

Pallacanestro Varese100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pallacanestro Varese5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,414

Combined PnL+$94.2

Scaligera Basket Verona3 traders

Total Value$13.98

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$8.62

Pallacanestro Varese — 63%Scaligera Basket Verona — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 91.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$58.15	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
UP UpTheBlues	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 45¢	$251.73	$281.5	+$29.77	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 4¢	$98.29	$183.75	+$52.79	48% 943-1015 (1958)
└ Pallacanestro Varese leg	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 32.9¢	$37.76	$108.92	+$38.48
└ Scaligera Basket Verona leg	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 4¢	$60.52	$74.83	+$14.31
US User7429<$100	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 67¢	$32.16	$35.52	+$3.36	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
poshposh<$100	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 25¢	$4.62	$7.11	+$2.49	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 35.9¢	$6.18	$6	-$0.18	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 36¢	$7.35	$5.72	-$1.63	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 44¢	$1.96	$2.39	+$0.42	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 42.2¢	$106.67	$2.26	+$10.43	85% 5371-932 (6303)

omnibus-076daa

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$1,737.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$58.15

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

UpTheBlues

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$251.73

Value

$281.5

PnL

+$29.77

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$98.29

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$52.79

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

Both legs:

Pallacanestro Varese$37.7632.9¢+$38.48

Scaligera Basket Verona$60.524¢+$14.31

User7429<$100

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$32.16

Value

$35.52

PnL

+$3.36

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

poshposh<$100

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$4.62

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$2.49

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$6.18

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$7.35

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$1.63

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$106.67

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$10.43

Record

85%

5371-932 (6303)

Research grade

AvoidPallacanestro Varese at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Pallacanestro Varese

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pallacanestro Varese wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.