Napoli Basketball vs. Reyer Venezia
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Napoli Basketball (75%) · Napoli Basketball at 92¢ · $542 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Napoli Basketball
4
Napoli Basketball 75%
$541.95
$101.85
70.1¢ → 92¢
+31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNapoli Basketball at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Napoli Basketballavg 70.8¢ | $346.88 | $452.14 | +$105.26 | 50% 33838-33423 (67261) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Napoli Basketballavg 64.3¢ | $40.99 | $48.34 | -$0.36 | 85% 5869-998 (6867) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Napoli Basketballavg 68.7¢ | $29.39 | $33.04 | +$3.65 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Reyer Veneziaavg 14.4¢ | $15.13 | $8.42 | -$6.7 | 48% 1059-1161 (2220) |
Invested
$346.88
Value
$452.14
PnL
+$105.26
Record
50%
33838-33423 (67261)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$40.99
Value
$48.34
PnL
-$0.36
Record
85%
5869-998 (6867)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$29.39
Value
$33.04
PnL
+$3.65
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$6.7
Record
48%
1059-1161 (2220)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.