Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Maxima Roma, while the market favors Aquila Basket Trento (51%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Aquila Basket Trento vs. Maxima Roma
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Maxima Roma (100%) · Maxima Roma at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Maxima Roma
6
Maxima Roma 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$14.28
48¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidMaxima Roma at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Aquila Basket Trento 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306CTR | Maxima Romaavg 48¢ | $479.04 | $489.02 | +$9.98 | 58% 4066-2890 (6956) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Maxima Romaavg 48¢ | $231 | $231 | +$0 | 50% 3942-3926 (7868) |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Maxima Romaavg 48¢ | $132.85 | $136.41 | +$3.56 | 50% 19424-19795 (39219) |
| └ Maxima Roma leg | Maxima Romaavg 48¢ | $86.91 | $90.53 | +$3.62 | |
| └ Aquila Basket Trento leg | Aquila Basket Trentoavg 50.1¢ | $45.94 | $45.88 | -$0.06 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Maxima Romaavg 48¢ | $82.44 | $85.02 | +$2.58 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Maxima Romaavg 48¢ | $75.63 | $77.26 | +$1.63 | 51% 6065-5785 (11850) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Maxima Romaavg 49¢ | $7.73 | $7.81 | +$0.08 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Maxima Romaavg 47¢ | $0.89 | $0.91 | +$0.02 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
Invested
$479.04
Value
$489.02
PnL
+$9.98
Record
58%
4066-2890 (6956)
Invested
$231
Value
$231
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3942-3926 (7868)
Invested
$132.85
Value
$136.41
PnL
+$3.56
Record
50%
19424-19795 (39219)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.44
Value
$85.02
PnL
+$2.58
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$75.63
Value
$77.26
PnL
+$1.63
Record
51%
6065-5785 (11850)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.73
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$0.91
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.