Amici Pallacanestro Udinese vs. Derthona Basket

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Amici Pallacanestro Udinese (22%) · Amici Pallacanestro Udinese at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese90¢Derthona Basket10¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Consensus Traders

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese 22%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$365.64

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 89.5¢

+71% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidAmici Pallacanestro Udinese at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese90%

Derthona Basket10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,447

Combined PnL+$760.92

Derthona Basket7 traders

Total Value$619.9

Total Shares2,093

Combined PnL-$395.28

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese — 22%Derthona Basket — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Amici Pallacanestro Udinese. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDerthona Basket 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedDerthona Basket 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Derthona Basket 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagen	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 52.4¢	$1.8K	$2.6K	+$755.56	45% 61-76 (137)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Derthona Basketavg 47.7¢	$764.77	$408.69	-$356.08	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Derthona Basketavg 49¢	$109.76	$107.52	-$2.24	50% 3947-3930 (7877)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Derthona Basketavg 58¢	$64.38	$67.71	+$3.33	62% 8225-4938 (13163)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Derthona Basketavg 48¢	$50.75	$17.97	-$32.78	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 50¢	$11.64	$16.99	+$5.35	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Derthona Basketavg 47¢	$15.68	$8.51	-$7.17	51% 6078-5800 (11878)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Derthona Basketavg 52¢	$6.48	$6.2	-$0.28	85% 5888-1004 (6892)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Derthona Basketavg 49¢	$3.36	$3.29	-$0.07	55% 1779-1467 (3246)

fraagen

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$1,795.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$755.56

Record

45%

61-76 (137)

LuckyLooCTR

Derthona Basket

Invested

$764.77

Value

$408.69

PnL

-$356.08

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Derthona Basket

Invested

$109.76

Value

$107.52

PnL

-$2.24

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

torta.techCTR<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$64.38

Value

$67.71

PnL

+$3.33

Record

62%

8225-4938 (13163)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$50.75

Value

$17.97

PnL

-$32.78

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

SnakeBall<$100

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$11.64

Value

$16.99

PnL

+$5.35

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$15.68

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$7.17

Record

51%

6078-5800 (11878)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$6.48

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.28

Record

85%

5888-1004 (6892)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

1779-1467 (3246)

Research grade

AvoidAmici Pallacanestro Udinese at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Amici Pallacanestro Udinese. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDerthona Basket 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedDerthona Basket 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Derthona Basket 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Amici Pallacanestro Udinese wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.