Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Astoria Bydgoszcz, while the market favors Trefl Sopot (61%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Trefl Sopot vs. Astoria Bydgoszcz
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Astoria Bydgoszcz (100%) · Astoria Bydgoszcz at 39¢ · $902 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Astoria Bydgoszcz
4
Astoria Bydgoszcz 100%
$901.69
-$16.23
41¢ → 39¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidAstoria Bydgoszcz at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Trefl Sopot 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Astoria Bydgoszczavg 41¢ | $820 | $780 | -$10 | 47% 2505-2803 (5308) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Astoria Bydgoszczavg 40.8¢ | $70.57 | $67.48 | -$3.09 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Astoria Bydgoszczavg 41¢ | $41 | $31.98 | -$2 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Astoria Bydgoszczavg 41¢ | $23.37 | $22.23 | -$1.14 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$820
Value
$780
PnL
-$10
Record
47%
2505-2803 (5308)
Invested
$70.57
Value
$67.48
PnL
-$3.09
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$41
Value
$31.98
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23.37
Value
$22.23
PnL
-$1.14
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.