Tasmania JackJumpers vs. Sydney Kings: O/U 189.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 82¢ · $740 held · ended Oct 30

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$740.47

Combined PnL

$238.12

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 82¢

+51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$716.78

Total Shares865

Combined PnL+$238.29

Over1 trader

Total Value$23.69

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$0.17

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Underavg 54.4¢	$311.6	$467.09	+$155.49	59% 9906-6885 (16791)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54.5¢	$189.08	$218.94	+$72.3	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 54¢	$20.25	$30.75	+$10.5	50% 3799-3760 (7559)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$17.76	$23.69	-$0.17	58% 28411-20968 (49379)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$311.6

Value

$467.09

PnL

+$155.49

Record

59%

9906-6885 (16791)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$189.08

Value

$218.94

PnL

+$72.3

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$20.25

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$10.5

Record

50%

3799-3760 (7559)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.76

Value

$23.69

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.