Spread: Sydney Kings (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tasmania JackJumpers (50%) · Tasmania JackJumpers at 82¢ · $212 held · ended Oct 30

Sydney Kings18¢Tasmania JackJumpers82¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tasmania JackJumpers

Consensus Traders

Tasmania JackJumpers 50%

Total Value

$212.09

Combined PnL

-$23.85

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 82¢

+53% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTasmania JackJumpers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tasmania JackJumpers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sydney Kings18%

Tasmania JackJumpers82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tasmania JackJumpers4 traders

Total Value$123.27

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$24.36

Sydney Kings4 traders

Total Value$88.81

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$0.51

Tasmania JackJumpers — 50%Sydney Kings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Tasmania JackJumpers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tasmania JackJumpers) and the top 1000 (5 on Sydney Kings) disagree here.

ctrSydney Kings 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTasmania JackJumpers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sydney Kings 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 54.3¢	$315.99	$74.19	-$25.09	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 46¢	$38.18	$42.33	-$0.42	50% 3799-3760 (7559)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 49¢	$28.29	$29.44	+$1.15	48% 751-806 (1557)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 51.2¢	$24.6	$28.32	+$1.56	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 44¢	$10.3	$11.94	-$0.23	59% 9906-6885 (16791)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 48¢	$8.92	$10.96	+$1.02	47% 2468-2770 (5238)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 58.2¢	$11.65	$9.8	-$1.85	59% 30359-21072 (51431)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0	50% 7836-7860 (15696)

VeryLucky888

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$315.99

Value

$74.19

PnL

-$25.09

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$38.18

Value

$42.33

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

3799-3760 (7559)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$28.29

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

751-806 (1557)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$24.6

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$1.56

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$10.3

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$0.23

Record

59%

9906-6885 (16791)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$8.92

Value

$10.96

PnL

+$1.02

Record

47%

2468-2770 (5238)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$11.65

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$1.85

Record

59%

30359-21072 (51431)

RLWGCTR<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7836-7860 (15696)

Research grade

AvoidTasmania JackJumpers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tasmania JackJumpers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Tasmania JackJumpers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tasmania JackJumpers) and the top 1000 (5 on Sydney Kings) disagree here.

ctrSydney Kings 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTasmania JackJumpers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sydney Kings 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tasmania JackJumpers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.