Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sydney Kings, while the market favors Tasmania JackJumpers (67%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Tasmania JackJumpers vs. Sydney Kings

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Kings (80%) · Sydney Kings at 33¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Tasmania JackJumpers67¢Sydney Kings33¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sydney Kings

Consensus Traders

Sydney Kings 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$118.19

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 33¢

-34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Tasmania JackJumpers 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tasmania JackJumpers67%

Sydney Kings33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Kings4 traders

Total Value$706.97

Total Shares1,190

Combined PnL+$58.63

Tasmania JackJumpers1 trader

Total Value$173.85

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$59.55

Sydney Kings — 80%Tasmania JackJumpers — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 42.9¢	$672.61	$570.04	-$102.57	48% 751-806 (1557)
└ Tasmania JackJumpers leg	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 71.3¢	$309.17	$290.39	-$18.77
└ Sydney Kings leg	Sydney Kingsavg 42.9¢	$363.44	$279.64	-$83.8
tradecraftCTR	Sydney Kingsavg 50.3¢	$382.32	$455.76	+$39.26	51% 5970-5661 (11631)
OM omnibus-076daa	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 44¢	$114.3	$173.85	+$59.55	49% 18973-19387 (38360)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Sydney Kingsavg 50¢	$125.37	$150.33	+$24.96	59% 30359-21072 (51431)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 55.7¢	$82.16	$81.35	-$5.05	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 33.9¢	$20.08	$19.54	-$0.54	59% 9906-6885 (16791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$672.61

Value

$570.04

PnL

-$102.57

Record

48%

751-806 (1557)

Both legs:

Tasmania JackJumpers$309.1771.3¢-$18.77

Sydney Kings$363.4442.9¢-$83.8

tradecraftCTR

Sydney Kings

Invested

$382.32

Value

$455.76

PnL

+$39.26

Record

51%

5970-5661 (11631)

omnibus-076daa

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$114.3

Value

$173.85

PnL

+$59.55

Record

49%

18973-19387 (38360)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Sydney Kings

Invested

$125.37

Value

$150.33

PnL

+$24.96

Record

59%

30359-21072 (51431)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$82.16

Value

$81.35

PnL

-$5.05

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$20.08

Value

$19.54

PnL

-$0.54

Record

59%

9906-6885 (16791)

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Tasmania JackJumpers 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.