South East Melbourne Phoenix vs. Tasmania JackJumpers

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tasmania JackJumpers (67%) · Tasmania JackJumpers at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

South East Melbourne Phoenix<1¢Tasmania JackJumpers>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tasmania JackJumpers

Consensus Traders

Tasmania JackJumpers 67%

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTasmania JackJumpers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tasmania JackJumpers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

South East Melbourne Phoenix0%

Tasmania JackJumpers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tasmania JackJumpers4 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares9,773

Combined PnL-$530.88

South East Melbourne Phoenix2 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,307

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Tasmania JackJumpers — 67%South East Melbourne Phoenix — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Tasmania JackJumpers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrTasmania JackJumpers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Tasmania JackJumpers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDew	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 75¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	-$711.55	53% 452-395 (847)
BI BIAVN	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 99.9¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$2.13	48% 236-255 (491)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 36.2¢	$5.6K	$3.9K	$-1.7K	48% 1050-1155 (2205)
tradecraft	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 75.5¢	$445.71	$590.35	+$144.64	51% 6057-5778 (11835)
HRTrading	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 76.9¢	$136.3	$170.2	+$33.9	53% 5545-4956 (10501)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	South East Melbourne Phoenixavg 67.7¢	$95.52	$33.85	-$62.47	57% 29194-21587 (50781)

RollAwayTheDew

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$3,557.78

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$711.55

Record

53%

452-395 (847)

BIAVN

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$4,264.38

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.13

Record

48%

236-255 (491)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$5,588.55

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

1050-1155 (2205)

tradecraft

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$445.71

Value

$590.35

PnL

+$144.64

Record

51%

6057-5778 (11835)

HRTrading

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$136.3

Value

$170.2

PnL

+$33.9

Record

53%

5545-4956 (10501)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Invested

$95.52

Value

$33.85

PnL

-$62.47

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

Research grade

AvoidTasmania JackJumpers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Tasmania JackJumpers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Tasmania JackJumpers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth East Melbourne Phoenix 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrTasmania JackJumpers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Tasmania JackJumpers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tasmania JackJumpers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.