Perth Wildcats vs. Sydney Kings: O/U 189.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $372 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$371.82
$41.22
56.7¢ → 99.6¢
+76% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 56.4¢ | $192.95 | $116.4 | +$9.4 | 58% 40750-29469 (70219) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $69.47 | $74.43 | +$4.96 | 47% 2405-2688 (5093) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $70.8 | $64 | -$6.8 | 59% 30088-20805 (50893) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.4¢ | $41.71 | $44.16 | -$0.91 | 58% 28120-20725 (48845) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.6¢ | $4.48 | $41.21 | +$36.73 | 60% 9359-6343 (15702) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 61.5¢ | $19.63 | $31.62 | -$2.16 | 53% 3046-2708 (5754) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$192.95
Value
$116.4
PnL
+$9.4
Record
58%
40750-29469 (70219)
Invested
$69.47
Value
$74.43
PnL
+$4.96
Record
47%
2405-2688 (5093)
Invested
$70.8
Value
$64
PnL
-$6.8
Record
59%
30088-20805 (50893)
Invested
$41.71
Value
$44.16
PnL
-$0.91
Record
58%
28120-20725 (48845)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.48
Value
$41.21
PnL
+$36.73
Record
60%
9359-6343 (15702)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.63
Value
$31.62
PnL
-$2.16
Record
53%
3046-2708 (5754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.