Perth Wildcats vs. Sydney Kings

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Kings (40%) · Sydney Kings at 94¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Perth Wildcats6¢Sydney Kings94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sydney Kings

Consensus Traders

Sydney Kings 40%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$182.29

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 94¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Perth Wildcats6%

Sydney Kings94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Kings4 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,516

Combined PnL+$212.85

Perth Wildcats6 traders

Total Value$263.64

Total Shares1,249

Combined PnL-$30.56

Sydney Kings — 40%Perth Wildcats — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sydney Kingsavg 88.3¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$72.6	49% 556-578 (1134)
MA madkkee	Sydney Kingsavg 82¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$160.4	66% 1010-519 (1529)
VeryLucky888	Sydney Kingsavg 58¢	$362.79	$102.47	-$19.8	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Perth Wildcatsavg 20.5¢	$131.66	$82.37	-$49.29	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 41.4¢	$61.73	$74.5	+$12.77	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 20¢	$53	$54.3	+$1.3	59% 30074-20800 (50874)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 20.9¢	$26.2	$25.69	-$0.51	63% 7978-4770 (12748)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 40¢	$20	$25	+$5	52% 5870-5504 (11374)
HRTrading<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 86¢	$2.32	$1.97	-$0.35	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
poshposhCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 10¢	$1.61	$1.77	+$0.16	60% 9356-6329 (15685)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sydney Kings

Invested

$3,336.59

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$72.6

Record

49%

556-578 (1134)

madkkee

Sydney Kings

Invested

$2,192.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$160.4

Record

66%

1010-519 (1529)

VeryLucky888

Sydney Kings

Invested

$362.79

Value

$102.47

PnL

-$19.8

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$131.66

Value

$82.37

PnL

-$49.29

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$61.73

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$12.77

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$53

Value

$54.3

PnL

+$1.3

Record

59%

30074-20800 (50874)

torta.techCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$26.2

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$0.51

Record

63%

7978-4770 (12748)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$20

Value

$25

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

5870-5504 (11374)

HRTrading<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$2.32

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

poshposhCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.16

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.