Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Illawarra Hawks (44%) · Illawarra Hawks at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7

Perth Wildcats<1¢Illawarra Hawks>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Illawarra Hawks

Consensus Traders

Illawarra Hawks 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 100¢

+78% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illawarra Hawks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Perth Wildcats0%

Illawarra Hawks100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illawarra Hawks4 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares7,938

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Perth Wildcats5 traders

Total Value$198.95

Total Shares829

Combined PnL-$311.87

Illawarra Hawks — 44%Perth Wildcats — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Illawarra Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Perth Wildcats) and the top 1000 (4 on Illawarra Hawks) disagree here.

whaleIllawarra Hawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrIllawarra Hawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPerth Wildcats 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Illawarra Hawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Illawarra Hawksavg 55.5¢	$4.6K	$6.1K	+$1.5K	48% 920-988 (1908)
tradecraft	Illawarra Hawksavg 64.6¢	$323.65	$380.68	+$57.04	51% 6003-5696 (11699)
poshposhARB<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 19.7¢	$204.23	$243.29	+$39.06	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 19.7¢	$112.34	$137.21	+$24.87
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 65.8¢	$91.89	$106.08	+$14.19
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Perth Wildcatsavg 57¢	$229.85	$96.78	-$133.07	59% 30467-21185 (51652)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 52.6¢	$78.94	$36.05	-$42.89	49% 19156-19549 (38705)
HRTrading<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 68.4¢	$28.97	$31.19	+$2.22	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
VeryLucky888CTR	Perth Wildcatsavg 73.7¢	$218.08	$31.08	-$65.13	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 72¢	$69.83	$23.28	-$46.56	51% 6503-6162 (12665)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 73.4¢	$35.98	$11.76	-$24.22	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 98.3¢	$4.92	$3.8	-$1.12	85% 5310-912 (6222)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$4,555.27

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

48%

920-988 (1908)

tradecraft

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$323.65

Value

$380.68

PnL

+$57.04

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

poshposhARB<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$204.23

Value

$243.29

PnL

+$39.06

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Both legs:

Perth Wildcats$112.3419.7¢+$24.87

Illawarra Hawks$91.8965.8¢+$14.19

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$229.85

Value

$96.78

PnL

-$133.07

Record

59%

30467-21185 (51652)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$78.94

Value

$36.05

PnL

-$42.89

Record

49%

19156-19549 (38705)

HRTrading<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$28.97

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$2.22

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

VeryLucky888CTR

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$218.08

Value

$31.08

PnL

-$65.13

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$69.83

Value

$23.28

PnL

-$46.56

Record

51%

6503-6162 (12665)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$35.98

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$24.22

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$4.92

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$1.12

Record

85%

5310-912 (6222)

Research grade

AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Illawarra Hawks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Illawarra Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Perth Wildcats) and the top 1000 (4 on Illawarra Hawks) disagree here.

whaleIllawarra Hawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrIllawarra Hawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPerth Wildcats 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Illawarra Hawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illawarra Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.