Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Adelaide 36ers, while the market favors New Zealand Breakers (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

New Zealand Breakers vs. Adelaide 36ers

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Adelaide 36ers (50%) · Adelaide 36ers at 49¢ · $356 held · ends Nov 6

New Zealand Breakers52¢Adelaide 36ers48¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Adelaide 36ers

Consensus Traders

Adelaide 36ers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$356.36

Combined PnL

$4.51

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidAdelaide 36ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adelaide 36ers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors New Zealand Breakers 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand Breakers52%

Adelaide 36ers49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adelaide 36ers2 traders

Total Value$109.5

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$3.59

New Zealand Breakers2 traders

Total Value$99.2

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$0.92

Adelaide 36ers — 50%New Zealand Breakers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Adelaide 36ersavg 48¢	$410.32	$99	+$4.28	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 52.7¢	$88.7	$89.99	+$1.29	49% 18950-19362 (38312)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 47.9¢	$76.37	$77	+$0.63	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 47.9¢	$41.68	$43.5	+$1.82
└ New Zealand Breakers leg	New Zealand Breakersavg 51.8¢	$34.69	$33.5	-$1.19
tradecraftARB<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 46¢	$66.51	$70.66	+$1.41	51% 5961-5650 (11611)
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 46¢	$42.01	$45.66	+$0.91
└ New Zealand Breakers leg	New Zealand Breakersavg 49¢	$24.5	$25	+$0.5
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 53.3¢	$11.19	$10.5	-$0.69	59% 45357-31714 (77071)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 52¢	$9.58	$9.21	-$0.37	47% 2461-2764 (5225)

VeryLucky888CTR

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$410.32

Value

$99

PnL

+$4.28

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

omnibus-076daa<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$88.7

Value

$89.99

PnL

+$1.29

Record

49%

18950-19362 (38312)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$76.37

Value

$77

PnL

+$0.63

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

Both legs:

Adelaide 36ers$41.6847.9¢+$1.82

New Zealand Breakers$34.6951.8¢-$1.19

tradecraftARB<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$66.51

Value

$70.66

PnL

+$1.41

Record

51%

5961-5650 (11611)

Both legs:

Adelaide 36ers$42.0146¢+$0.91

New Zealand Breakers$24.549¢+$0.5

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$11.19

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.69

Record

59%

45357-31714 (77071)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

2461-2764 (5225)

Research grade

AvoidAdelaide 36ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Adelaide 36ers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors New Zealand Breakers 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adelaide 36ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.