Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cairns Taipans vs. Melbourne United: O/U 192.5

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$2.88

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 44¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,251

Combined PnL+$2.88

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$7.04	47% 2498-2799 (5297)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Underavg 46¢	$141.22	$141.22	+$0	50% 3859-3803 (7662)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Underavg 46¢	$310.4	$93.26	-$4.16	49% 3921-4114 (8035)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$69.93	$71.13	-$0.28	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.4¢	$34.36	$36.63	+$0.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.4¢	$35.57	$34.5	-$1.07
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$12.88	$12.88	+$0	53% 4456-4025 (8481)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$2,156.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$7.04

Record

47%

2498-2799 (5297)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Under

Invested

$141.22

Value

$141.22

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3859-3803 (7662)

NotradecopyCTR

Under

Invested

$310.4

Value

$93.26

PnL

-$4.16

Record

49%

3921-4114 (8035)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$69.93

Value

$71.13

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

Both legs:

Over$34.3646.4¢+$0.79

Under$35.5747.4¢-$1.07

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.88

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.