Cairns Taipans vs. Melbourne United
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne United (89%) · Melbourne United at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Melbourne United
9
Melbourne United 89%
$3.7K
$285.44
60.6¢ → 94¢
+55% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidMelbourne United at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Melbourne Unitedavg 55.7¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$344.4 | 48% 914-983 (1897) |
TO torta.tech | Melbourne Unitedavg 65¢ | $756.39 | $657.11 | -$60.64 | 63% 8132-4874 (13006) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Melbourne Unitedavg 66¢ | $499.99 | $537.86 | +$18.94 | 51% 3927-3841 (7768) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Melbourne Unitedavg 60.9¢ | $151.02 | $123.99 | -$27.03 | 49% 19146-19539 (38685) |
 poshposh<$100 | Melbourne Unitedavg 63.2¢ | $81.82 | $85.96 | +$4.14 | 59% 10128-7124 (17252) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Melbourne Unitedavg 67.4¢ | $80.97 | $85.26 | +$1.29 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Cairns Taipansavg 26¢ | $65 | $62.5 | -$2.5 | 51% 6001-5695 (11696) |
 VeryLucky888 | Melbourne Unitedavg 68.5¢ | $137 | $42.55 | +$7 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Melbourne Unitedavg 69¢ | $5.52 | $5.36 | -$0.16 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$1,790.99
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$344.4
Record
48%
914-983 (1897)
Invested
$756.39
Value
$657.11
PnL
-$60.64
Record
63%
8132-4874 (13006)
Invested
$499.99
Value
$537.86
PnL
+$18.94
Record
51%
3927-3841 (7768)
Invested
$151.02
Value
$123.99
PnL
-$27.03
Record
49%
19146-19539 (38685)
poshposh<$100Invested
$81.82
Value
$85.96
PnL
+$4.14
Record
59%
10128-7124 (17252)
Invested
$80.97
Value
$85.26
PnL
+$1.29
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$65
Value
$62.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
51%
6001-5695 (11696)
VeryLucky888Invested
$137
Value
$42.55
PnL
+$7
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.52
Value
$5.36
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Melbourne United — $2.1K
torta.tech
Melbourne United — $657.11
GamblingAddict12345
Melbourne United — $537.86
omnibus-076daa
Melbourne United — $123.99
poshposh
Melbourne United — $85.96
LeLynxMalynx
Melbourne United — $85.26
tradecraft
CTRCairns Taipans — $62.5
VeryLucky888
Melbourne United — $42.55
HRTrading
Melbourne United — $5.36