Minas Tenis Clube MG vs. Pato Basquete

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Minas Tenis Clube MG (63%) · Minas Tenis Clube MG at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Minas Tenis Clube MG98¢Pato Basquete2¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Minas Tenis Clube MG

Consensus Traders

Minas Tenis Clube MG 63%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$72.76

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 98.4¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMinas Tenis Clube MG at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Minas Tenis Clube MG

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Minas Tenis Clube MG98%

Pato Basquete2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Minas Tenis Clube MG5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,985

Combined PnL-$89.56

Pato Basquete3 traders

Total Value$57.42

Total Shares718

Combined PnL+$16.8

Minas Tenis Clube MG — 63%Pato Basquete — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graziek99	Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 97.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$87.74	88% 363-49 (412)
LS LSS1	Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 94.9¢	$243.85	$236.44	-$7.41	72% 1550-606 (2156)
VeryLucky888	Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 92¢	$179.92	$82.96	+$4.04	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 5.4¢	$26.92	$40.16	+$13.24	52% 5837-5457 (11294)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 92¢	$35.88	$35.88	+$0	59% 44348-30735 (75083)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 7¢	$12.97	$14.82	+$1.85	50% 32647-32181 (64828)
poshposh<$100	Minas Tenis Clube MGavg 96.7¢	$4.6	$6.15	+$1.55	60% 9159-6104 (15263)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 2.4¢	$0.73	$2.43	+$1.7	54% 2678-2303 (4981)

graziek99

Minas Tenis Clube MG

Invested

$1,555.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$87.74

Record

88%

363-49 (412)

LSS1

Minas Tenis Clube MG

Invested

$243.85

Value

$236.44

PnL

-$7.41

Record

72%

1550-606 (2156)

VeryLucky888

Minas Tenis Clube MG

Invested

$179.92

Value

$82.96

PnL

+$4.04

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$26.92

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$13.24

Record

52%

5837-5457 (11294)

UpTheBlues<$100

Minas Tenis Clube MG

Invested

$35.88

Value

$35.88

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

44348-30735 (75083)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$12.97

Value

$14.82

PnL

+$1.85

Record

50%

32647-32181 (64828)

poshposh<$100

Minas Tenis Clube MG

Invested

$4.6

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$1.55

Record

60%

9159-6104 (15263)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$0.73

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$1.7

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

Research grade

AvoidMinas Tenis Clube MG at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Minas Tenis Clube MG

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Minas Tenis Clube MG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.