Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cruzeiro Basquete, while the market favors Brasilia Basquete (97%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cruzeiro Basquete vs. Brasilia Basquete

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cruzeiro Basquete (89%) · Cruzeiro Basquete at 3.0¢ · $909 held · ends Nov 3

Cruzeiro Basquete3¢Brasilia Basquete97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cruzeiro Basquete

Consensus Traders

Cruzeiro Basquete 89%

Total Value

$908.87

Combined PnL

$50.4

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 3¢

-92% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCruzeiro Basquete at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cruzeiro Basquete

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Brasilia Basquete 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cruzeiro Basquete3%

Brasilia Basquete97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cruzeiro Basquete8 traders

Total Value$721.62

Total Shares1,752

Combined PnL+$57.24

Brasilia Basquete1 trader

Total Value$187.25

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$6.83

Cruzeiro Basquete — 89%Brasilia Basquete — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 41¢	$204.88	$234.98	+$30.1	59% 29955-20673 (50628)
MR MrBently	Brasilia Basqueteavg 69¢	$188.62	$187.25	-$6.83	53% 510-461 (971)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 35.4¢	$219.28	$163.56	+$83.31	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 39¢	$200	$161.54	-$38.46	53% 3089-2717 (5806)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 42.8¢	$87.97	$75.34	-$12.63	50% 32647-32181 (64828)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 33¢	$71.12	$67.89	-$3.23	50% 184-181 (365)
poshposhCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 2.5¢	$3.41	$8.93	+$5.52	60% 9159-6104 (15263)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 39¢	$12.76	$5.26	-$7.5	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 16¢	$4	$4.13	+$0.13	48% 4423-4879 (9302)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$204.88

Value

$234.98

PnL

+$30.1

Record

59%

29955-20673 (50628)

MrBently

Brasilia Basquete

Invested

$188.62

Value

$187.25

PnL

-$6.83

Record

53%

510-461 (971)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$219.28

Value

$163.56

PnL

+$83.31

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$200

Value

$161.54

PnL

-$38.46

Record

53%

3089-2717 (5806)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$87.97

Value

$75.34

PnL

-$12.63

Record

50%

32647-32181 (64828)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$71.12

Value

$67.89

PnL

-$3.23

Record

50%

184-181 (365)

poshposhCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$3.41

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$5.52

Record

60%

9159-6104 (15263)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$12.76

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

4423-4879 (9302)

Research grade

AvoidCruzeiro Basquete at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Cruzeiro Basquete

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Brasilia Basquete 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cruzeiro Basquete wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2285.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

2385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.