Astros de Jalisco vs. Fuerza Regia

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Astros de Jalisco (50%) · Astros de Jalisco at 61¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Astros de Jalisco61¢Fuerza Regia39¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Astros de Jalisco

Consensus Traders

Astros de Jalisco 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$150.38

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 61¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAstros de Jalisco at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astros de Jalisco

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astros de Jalisco61%

Fuerza Regia39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astros de Jalisco4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,807

Combined PnL+$309.22

Fuerza Regia4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,684

Combined PnL-$158.84

Astros de Jalisco — 50%Fuerza Regia — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Astros de Jalisco. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAstros de Jalisco 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFuerza Regia 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Fuerza Regia 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marketmesh	Astros de Jaliscoavg 55¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$238.98	57% 93-69 (162)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Fuerza Regiaavg 45¢	$999.99	$888.88	-$33.33	49% 3909-4107 (8016)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Fuerza Regiaavg 45¢	$999.99	$888.88	-$111.11	51% 3913-3830 (7743)
ST stepanka1234	Astros de Jaliscoavg 54.2¢	$557.6	$627.69	+$70.09	71% 34-14 (48)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Fuerza Regiaavg 46¢	$96.6	$84	-$12.6	52% 218-204 (422)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Fuerza Regiaavg 45.4¢	$59.95	$56.01	-$3.94	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
└ Fuerza Regia leg	Fuerza Regiaavg 45.4¢	$41.8	$35.88	-$5.92
└ Astros de Jalisco leg	Astros de Jaliscoavg 55¢	$18.15	$20.13	+$1.98
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Astros de Jaliscoavg 56¢	$14.44	$14.9	+$0.46	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Fuerza Regiaavg 46¢	$13.8	$12	-$1.8	54% 97-83 (180)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Astros de Jaliscoavg 58¢	$7.42	$7.12	-$0.3	49% 12407-12722 (25129)

marketmesh

Astros de Jalisco

Invested

$2,610.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$238.98

Record

57%

93-69 (162)

NotradecopyCTR

Fuerza Regia

Invested

$999.99

Value

$888.88

PnL

-$33.33

Record

49%

3909-4107 (8016)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Fuerza Regia

Invested

$999.99

Value

$888.88

PnL

-$111.11

Record

51%

3913-3830 (7743)

stepanka1234

Astros de Jalisco

Invested

$557.6

Value

$627.69

PnL

+$70.09

Record

71%

34-14 (48)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Fuerza Regia

Invested

$96.6

Value

$84

PnL

-$12.6

Record

52%

218-204 (422)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Fuerza Regia

Invested

$59.95

Value

$56.01

PnL

-$3.94

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

Both legs:

Fuerza Regia$41.845.4¢-$5.92

Astros de Jalisco$18.1555¢+$1.98

UpTheBlues<$100

Astros de Jalisco

Invested

$14.44

Value

$14.9

PnL

+$0.46

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Fuerza Regia

Invested

$13.8

Value

$12

PnL

-$1.8

Record

54%

97-83 (180)

LuckyLoo<$100

Astros de Jalisco

Invested

$7.42

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

12407-12722 (25129)

Research grade

AvoidAstros de Jalisco at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Astros de Jalisco

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Astros de Jalisco. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAstros de Jalisco 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFuerza Regia 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Fuerza Regia 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astros de Jalisco wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.