Kosner Baskonia vs. Manresa

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kosner Baskonia (50%) · Kosner Baskonia at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Kosner Baskonia94¢Manresa6¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kosner Baskonia

Consensus Traders

Kosner Baskonia 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.68

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 94¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKosner Baskonia at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kosner Baskonia

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kosner Baskonia94%

Manresa6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kosner Baskonia2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,272

Combined PnL-$18.23

Manresa2 traders

Total Value$36.28

Total Shares605

Combined PnL-$18.45

Kosner Baskonia — 50%Manresa — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Kosner Baskoniaavg 95.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$40.97	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
HRTrading	Kosner Baskoniaavg 82.5¢	$156.01	$178.75	+$22.74	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Manresaavg 9.7¢	$49.14	$30.48	-$18.66	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
poshposhCTR<$100	Manresaavg 5.8¢	$5.59	$5.8	+$0.21	58% 10691-7671 (18362)

SnakeBall

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$2,946.38

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$40.97

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

HRTrading

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$156.01

Value

$178.75

PnL

+$22.74

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Manresa

Invested

$49.14

Value

$30.48

PnL

-$18.66

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

poshposhCTR<$100

Manresa

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

Research grade

AvoidKosner Baskonia at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kosner Baskonia

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kosner Baskonia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.