Spread: Real Madrid (-15.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Burgos (100%) · Burgos at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Burgos
6
Burgos 100%
$8.7K
$251.76
53.2¢ → 55¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBurgos at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Burgos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Burgosavg 53.5¢ | $6.9K | $7.1K | +$193.86 | 47% 2571-2857 (5428) |
BA Bagwell306 | Burgosavg 52.7¢ | $840 | $876.88 | +$36.88 | 58% 4066-2890 (6956) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Burgosavg 51.6¢ | $262.53 | $279.85 | +$17.32 | 50% 19424-19795 (39219) |
NA NatoAlfista | Burgosavg 51¢ | $275.91 | $275.91 | -$0 | 50% 3942-3926 (7868) |
 VeryLucky888 | Burgosavg 51¢ | $122.4 | $122.4 | -$0 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Burgosavg 52.3¢ | $71.09 | $74.8 | +$3.71 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
Invested
$6,888.56
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$193.86
Record
47%
2571-2857 (5428)
Invested
$840
Value
$876.88
PnL
+$36.88
Record
58%
4066-2890 (6956)
Invested
$262.53
Value
$279.85
PnL
+$17.32
Record
50%
19424-19795 (39219)
Invested
$275.91
Value
$275.91
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3942-3926 (7868)
VeryLucky888Invested
$122.4
Value
$122.4
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$71.09
Value
$74.8
PnL
+$3.71
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.