Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CB Breogan Lugo, while the market favors Monbus Obradoiro (50%). 0 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Monbus Obradoiro vs. CB Breogan Lugo
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold CB Breogan Lugo (100%) · CB Breogan Lugo at 50¢ · $448 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
CB Breogan Lugo
3
CB Breogan Lugo 100%
$448.02
$8.34
49.1¢ → 50¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCB Breogan Lugo at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Monbus Obradoiro 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NA NatoAlfista | CB Breogan Lugoavg 49¢ | $215.6 | $220 | +$4.4 | 50% 3942-3926 (7868) |
 VeryLucky888 | CB Breogan Lugoavg 49¢ | $146.87 | $150 | +$3.12 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | CB Breogan Lugoavg 49.5¢ | $77.2 | $78.02 | +$0.82 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.