Joventut vs. Bilbao Basket
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bilbao Basket (75%) · Bilbao Basket at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Bilbao Basket
4
Bilbao Basket 75%
2 arb excluded
$4.2K
$2.0K
29.7¢ → 75¢
+153% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBilbao Basket at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Bilbao Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Bilbao Basketavg 30¢ | $877.33 | $1.9K | +$1.0K | 50% 33838-33423 (67261) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Bilbao Basketavg 29.2¢ | $850.51 | $1.9K | +$1.0K | 48% 1059-1161 (2220) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Joventutavg 62.3¢ | $61.12 | $209.58 | +$148.47 | 58% 10646-7629 (18275) |
| └ Bilbao Basket leg | Bilbao Basketavg 11.8¢ | $24.38 | $118.15 | +$93.77 | |
| └ Joventut leg | Joventutavg 62.3¢ | $132.43 | $91.44 | +$54.7 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Joventutavg 40.3¢ | $175.56 | $108.78 | -$66.78 | 50% 19431-19804 (39235) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100 | Joventutavg 49.3¢ | $52.3 | $58.82 | +$6.52 | 85% 5869-998 (6867) |
| └ Bilbao Basket leg | Bilbao Basketavg 39.6¢ | $23.28 | $33.53 | +$10.25 | |
| └ Joventut leg | Joventutavg 49.3¢ | $29.02 | $25.29 | -$3.73 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Bilbao Basketavg 75.6¢ | $7.62 | $6.14 | -$1.48 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$877.33
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
50%
33838-33423 (67261)
Invested
$850.51
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
48%
1059-1161 (2220)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$61.12
Value
$209.58
PnL
+$148.47
Record
58%
10646-7629 (18275)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.56
Value
$108.78
PnL
-$66.78
Record
50%
19431-19804 (39235)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100Invested
$52.3
Value
$58.82
PnL
+$6.52
Record
85%
5869-998 (6867)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.62
Value
$6.14
PnL
-$1.48
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.