Bilbao Basket vs. CB Murcia

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bilbao Basket (90%) · Bilbao Basket at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Bilbao Basket63¢CB Murcia37¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bilbao Basket

Consensus Traders

Bilbao Basket 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$3.66

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBilbao Basket at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilbao Basket

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilbao Basket63%

CB Murcia38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CB Murcia1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,344

Combined PnL+$16.72

Bilbao Basket9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,430

Combined PnL-$13.06

CB Murcia — 10%Bilbao Basket — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Bilbao Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBilbao Basket 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBilbao Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bilbao Basket 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	CB Murciaavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$16.72	47% 520-597 (1117)
NO Notradecopy	Bilbao Basketavg 63¢	$1,000	$992.06	-$7.94	24% 66-206 (272)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Bilbao Basketavg 63¢	$1,000	$992.06	-$7.94	56% 61-47 (108)
MO mouzsynapse	Bilbao Basketavg 62¢	$488.5	$492.44	+$3.94	41% 160-234 (394)
VeryLucky888	Bilbao Basketavg 63¢	$222.31	$187.47	-$0.06	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 59¢	$179.36	$174.52	-$4.84	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
└ Bilbao Basket leg	Bilbao Basketavg 59¢	$115.12	$121.95	+$6.83
└ CB Murcia leg	CB Murciaavg 45.8¢	$64.24	$52.57	-$11.67
SU suntori<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 60¢	$47.61	$49.2	+$1.59	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
38 38791873984189	Bilbao Basketavg 63¢	$109.78	$26.99	-$2.79	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
BA Bayupati<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 63¢	$12.13	$12.03	-$0.1	20% 40-164 (204)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 63¢	$11.33	$11.24	-$0.09	37% 94-160 (254)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 59¢	$6.46	$6.79	+$0.33	46% 631-739 (1370)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

CB Murcia

Invested

$1,237.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$16.72

Record

47%

520-597 (1117)

Notradecopy

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$1,000

Value

$992.06

PnL

-$7.94

Record

24%

66-206 (272)

GamblingAddict12345

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$1,000

Value

$992.06

PnL

-$7.94

Record

56%

61-47 (108)

mouzsynapse

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$488.5

Value

$492.44

PnL

+$3.94

Record

41%

160-234 (394)

VeryLucky888

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$222.31

Value

$187.47

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$179.36

Value

$174.52

PnL

-$4.84

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

Both legs:

Bilbao Basket$115.1259¢+$6.83

CB Murcia$64.2445.8¢-$11.67

suntori<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$47.61

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$1.59

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

38791873984189

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$109.78

Value

$26.99

PnL

-$2.79

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Bayupati<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$12.13

Value

$12.03

PnL

-$0.1

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

Bagwell306<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$11.33

Value

$11.24

PnL

-$0.09

Record

37%

94-160 (254)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

Research grade

AvoidBilbao Basket at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bilbao Basket

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Bilbao Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBilbao Basket 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBilbao Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bilbao Basket 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilbao Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.