Seoul Thunders vs. Seoul Knights
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Seoul Knights (80%) · Seoul Knights at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Seoul Knights
5
Seoul Knights 80%
$7.2K
$584.95
82¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSeoul Knights at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Seoul Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO torta.tech | Seoul Knightsavg 84¢ | $4.2K | $5.0K | +$767.9 | 62% 8223-4934 (13157) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Seoul Thundersavg 18.6¢ | $6.5K | $1.6K | -$356.8 | 48% 1054-1158 (2212) |
 tradecraft | Seoul Knightsavg 52.8¢ | $345.16 | $344.99 | +$162.59 | 51% 6065-5785 (11850) |
 poshposh | Seoul Knightsavg 80.2¢ | $247.09 | $255.05 | +$7.96 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Seoul Knightsavg 89¢ | $27.33 | $30.64 | +$3.31 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
Invested
$4,183.72
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$767.9
Record
62%
8223-4934 (13157)
Invested
$6,470.92
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$356.8
Record
48%
1054-1158 (2212)
tradecraftInvested
$345.16
Value
$344.99
PnL
+$162.59
Record
51%
6065-5785 (11850)
poshposhInvested
$247.09
Value
$255.05
PnL
+$7.96
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$27.33
Value
$30.64
PnL
+$3.31
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.