Mobis Phoebus vs. KCC Egis

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold KCC Egis (64%) · KCC Egis at 73¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 5

Mobis Phoebus27¢KCC Egis73¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

KCC Egis

Consensus Traders

KCC Egis 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$650.24

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 73¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKCC Egis at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

KCC Egis

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mobis Phoebus27%

KCC Egis73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KCC Egis7 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares14,192

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Mobis Phoebus4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares10,549

Combined PnL-$385.08

KCC Egis — 64%Mobis Phoebus — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on KCC Egis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mobis Phoebus) and the top 1000 (10 on KCC Egis) disagree here.

whaleKCC Egis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKCC Egis 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMobis Phoebus 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000KCC Egis 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	KCC Egisavg 62.9¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$668.86	49% 667-689 (1356)
BE betwithconvic	KCC Egisavg 62.9¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$149.83	57% 483-363 (846)
SH Shimi1234CTR	Mobis Phoebusavg 31.4¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$191.19	38% 103-167 (270)
FeedTheBigBird	KCC Egisavg 63¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$80.67	47% 46-52 (98)
GA GamblingAddict12345	KCC Egisavg 61¢	$949.99	$1.0K	+$77.87	51% 3908-3826 (7734)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	KCC Egisavg 74.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$95.32	50% 33056-32624 (65680)
└ KCC Egis leg	KCC Egisavg 74.4¢	$749.35	$760.47	+$11.12
└ Mobis Phoebus leg	Mobis Phoebusavg 34.6¢	$365.61	$259.17	-$106.44
TO torta.techCTR	Mobis Phoebusavg 40.4¢	$1.2K	$601.38	-$584.4	63% 8081-4813 (12894)
poshposh	KCC Egisavg 63¢	$339.12	$355.49	+$16.36	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
NO Notradecopy	KCC Egisavg 61¢	$118.29	$159.99	+$41.69	49% 3904-4103 (8007)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mobis Phoebusavg 35.5¢	$515.91	$117.14	+$8.03	58% 41203-29875 (71078)
HRTrading<$100	KCC Egisavg 67.3¢	$32.05	$32.08	+$0.03	52% 3684-3346 (7030)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 33¢	$3.14	$3.24	+$0.1	49% 12392-12709 (25101)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

KCC Egis

Invested

$2,739.31

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$668.86

Record

49%

667-689 (1356)

betwithconvic

KCC Egis

Invested

$3,084.22

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$149.83

Record

57%

483-363 (846)

Shimi1234CTR

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$191.19

Record

38%

103-167 (270)

FeedTheBigBird

KCC Egis

Invested

$1,694.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$80.67

Record

47%

46-52 (98)

GamblingAddict12345

KCC Egis

Invested

$949.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$77.87

Record

51%

3908-3826 (7734)

SnakeBallARB<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$1,114.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$95.32

Record

50%

33056-32624 (65680)

Both legs:

KCC Egis$749.3574.4¢+$11.12

Mobis Phoebus$365.6134.6¢-$106.44

torta.techCTR

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$1,185.78

Value

$601.38

PnL

-$584.4

Record

63%

8081-4813 (12894)

poshposh

KCC Egis

Invested

$339.12

Value

$355.49

PnL

+$16.36

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

Notradecopy

KCC Egis

Invested

$118.29

Value

$159.99

PnL

+$41.69

Record

49%

3904-4103 (8007)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$515.91

Value

$117.14

PnL

+$8.03

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

HRTrading<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$32.05

Value

$32.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

12392-12709 (25101)

Research grade

AvoidKCC Egis at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

KCC Egis

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on KCC Egis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mobis Phoebus) and the top 1000 (10 on KCC Egis) disagree here.

whaleKCC Egis 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKCC Egis 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMobis Phoebus 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000KCC Egis 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that KCC Egis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.