LG Sakers vs. Wonju DB Promy
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Wonju DB Promy (33%) · Wonju DB Promy at 100¢ · $817 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Wonju DB Promy
3
Wonju DB Promy 33%
$817.23
$237.49
Research grade
AvoidWonju DB Promy at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Wonju DB Promyavg 56.1¢ | $576.1 | $812.9 | +$305.91 | 48% 1052-1156 (2208) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | LG Sakersavg 11.7¢ | $71.67 | $4.3 | -$67.37 | 58% 10615-7587 (18202) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | LG Sakersavg 27¢ | $1.08 | $0.03 | -$1.05 | 53% 5561-4981 (10542) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.