Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wonju DB Promy, while the market favors KCC Egis (95%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

KCC Egis vs. Wonju DB Promy

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wonju DB Promy (63%) · Wonju DB Promy at 5.0¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7

KCC Egis95¢Wonju DB Promy5¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wonju DB Promy

Consensus Traders

Wonju DB Promy 63%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$101.19

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 5¢

-91% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWonju DB Promy at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors KCC Egis 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

KCC Egis95%

Wonju DB Promy5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KCC Egis3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,237

Combined PnL-$166.8

Wonju DB Promy5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,847

Combined PnL+$65.61

KCC Egis — 38%Wonju DB Promy — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	KCC Egisavg 72.1¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$189.93	48% 881-949 (1830)
BE betwithconvicCTR	Wonju DB Promyavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$17.75	57% 484-366 (850)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Wonju DB Promyavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$76.22	50% 2509-2491 (5000)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	KCC Egisavg 44¢	$322.48	$326.15	+$3.66	59% 30449-21168 (51617)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wonju DB Promyavg 53.5¢	$159.43	$111	+$6.21	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
HRTrading<$100	KCC Egisavg 56.6¢	$79.71	$99.18	+$19.47	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 54¢	$23.76	$24.42	+$0.66	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
poshposhCTR<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 35.4¢	$14.82	$15.09	+$0.27	59% 10106-7093 (17199)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

KCC Egis

Invested

$2,655.46

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$189.93

Record

48%

881-949 (1830)

betwithconvicCTR

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$1,987.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$17.75

Record

57%

484-366 (850)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$1,605.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$76.22

Record

50%

2509-2491 (5000)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

KCC Egis

Invested

$322.48

Value

$326.15

PnL

+$3.66

Record

59%

30449-21168 (51617)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$159.43

Value

$111

PnL

+$6.21

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

HRTrading<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$79.71

Value

$99.18

PnL

+$19.47

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$23.76

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$0.66

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

poshposhCTR<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$14.82

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$0.27

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

Research grade

AvoidWonju DB Promy at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors KCC Egis 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wonju DB Promy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.3%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1491.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

1591.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.