Goyang vs. Sonic Boom

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sonic Boom (60%) · Sonic Boom at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Goyang<1¢Sonic Boom>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sonic Boom

Consensus Traders

Sonic Boom 60%

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 100¢

+89% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSonic Boom at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sonic Boom

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Goyang0%

Sonic Boom100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sonic Boom6 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares14,951

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Goyang4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,566

Combined PnL+$224.21

Sonic Boom — 60%Goyang — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sonic Boom. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sonic Boom) and the top 1000 (7 on Goyang) disagree here.

ctrGoyang 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSonic Boom 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Goyang 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sonic Boomavg 40.3¢	$3.4K	$5.3K	+$553.17	48% 1050-1155 (2205)
BI BIAVN	Sonic Boomavg 70.8¢	$3.1K	$4.1K	+$1.0K	48% 236-255 (491)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Goyangavg 60¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$224.11	59% 30644-21353 (51997)
BE betwithconvic	Sonic Boomavg 50.7¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$166.15	57% 486-369 (855)
poshposh	Sonic Boomavg 82.5¢	$204.43	$160.98	-$43.45	58% 10610-7577 (18187)
VeryLucky888<$100	Sonic Boomavg 50¢	$99.35	$85.46	-$20.85	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
HRTrading<$100	Sonic Boomavg 64.6¢	$14.16	$21.91	+$7.75	53% 5545-4956 (10501)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Goyangavg 43¢	$10	$10.47	+$0.47	67% 23447-11810 (35257)
US User7429CTR<$100	Goyangavg 44¢	$4.6	$4.7	+$0.1	55% 8405-6757 (15162)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Goyangavg 1¢	$0.5	$0.03	-$0.48	50% 2581-2631 (5212)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sonic Boom

Invested

$3,425.18

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$553.17

Record

48%

1050-1155 (2205)

BIAVN

Sonic Boom

Invested

$3,106.32

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

48%

236-255 (491)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Goyang

Invested

$2,689.37

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$224.11

Record

59%

30644-21353 (51997)

betwithconvic

Sonic Boom

Invested

$2,021.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$166.15

Record

57%

486-369 (855)

poshposh

Sonic Boom

Invested

$204.43

Value

$160.98

PnL

-$43.45

Record

58%

10610-7577 (18187)

VeryLucky888<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$99.35

Value

$85.46

PnL

-$20.85

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

HRTrading<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$14.16

Value

$21.91

PnL

+$7.75

Record

53%

5545-4956 (10501)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Goyang

Invested

$10

Value

$10.47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

67%

23447-11810 (35257)

User7429CTR<$100

Goyang

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

8405-6757 (15162)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Goyang

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

2581-2631 (5212)

Research grade

AvoidSonic Boom at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Sonic Boom

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sonic Boom. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sonic Boom) and the top 1000 (7 on Goyang) disagree here.

ctrGoyang 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSonic Boom 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Goyang 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sonic Boom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.