Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (79%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Daegu Pegasus vs. Wonju DB Promy: O/U 174.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 22¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
-$876.25
49¢ → 21.5¢
-56% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$49 | 50% 2460-2452 (4912) |
BA BayupatiCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$27.32 | 51% 193-189 (382) |
WO woshikd99CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $644.79 | -$824.73 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $52.85 | $53.07 | +$0.22 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $29.89 | $29.58 | -$0.31 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.4¢ | $22.96 | $23.48 | +$0.52 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $268.6 | $43.27 | +$24.79 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
Invested
$4,802.95
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$49
Record
50%
2460-2452 (4912)
Invested
$2,476.02
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$27.32
Record
51%
193-189 (382)
Invested
$1,469.51
Value
$644.79
PnL
-$824.73
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$52.85
Value
$53.07
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$268.6
Value
$43.27
PnL
+$24.79
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.