Daegu Pegasus vs. Wonju DB Promy
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Daegu Pegasus (80%) · Daegu Pegasus at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Daegu Pegasus
5
Daegu Pegasus 80%
$3.2K
$20.22
51.2¢ → 55¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidDaegu Pegasus at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Daegu Pegasusavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$25.26 | 50% 2458-2452 (4910) |
NO Notradecopy | Daegu Pegasusavg 51¢ | $950 | $931.37 | -$18.63 | 49% 3891-4090 (7981) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Daegu Pegasusavg 51.3¢ | $900 | $829.23 | +$51.41 | 50% 3890-3813 (7703) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Daegu Pegasusavg 53.5¢ | $175.48 | $177.18 | +$1.7 | 49% 18584-19002 (37586) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Wonju DB Promyavg 44¢ | $210.88 | $46 | +$11 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
Invested
$1,288.26
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$25.26
Record
50%
2458-2452 (4910)
Invested
$950
Value
$931.37
PnL
-$18.63
Record
49%
3891-4090 (7981)
Invested
$900
Value
$829.23
PnL
+$51.41
Record
50%
3890-3813 (7703)
Invested
$175.48
Value
$177.18
PnL
+$1.7
Record
49%
18584-19002 (37586)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$210.88
Value
$46
PnL
+$11
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.