Daegu Pegasus vs. Mobis Phoebus
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Daegu Pegasus (100%) · Daegu Pegasus at 90¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Daegu Pegasus
6
Daegu Pegasus 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.1K
$59.35
88.3¢ → 89.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidDaegu Pegasus at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BE betwithconvic | Daegu Pegasusavg 89.8¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$29.28 | 57% 484-366 (850) |
UP UpTheBlues | Daegu Pegasusavg 81.3¢ | $666.37 | $696.27 | +$29.9 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Daegu Pegasusavg 90.8¢ | $270.39 | $243.47 | -$16.12 | 48% 912-980 (1892) |
| └ Daegu Pegasus leg | Daegu Pegasusavg 90.8¢ | $178.2 | $175.73 | +$8.32 | |
| └ Mobis Phoebus leg | Mobis Phoebusavg 14.3¢ | $92.19 | $67.75 | -$24.45 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Daegu Pegasusavg 81.2¢ | $182.94 | $84.57 | +$1.1 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Daegu Pegasusavg 85.4¢ | $54.88 | $56.97 | +$2.09 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
 poshposh<$100 | Daegu Pegasusavg 75¢ | $37.51 | $37.09 | -$4.32 | 59% 10125-7117 (17242) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Daegu Pegasusavg 76.5¢ | $25.06 | $26.2 | +$1.3 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
Invested
$3,973.11
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$29.28
Record
57%
484-366 (850)
Invested
$666.37
Value
$696.27
PnL
+$29.9
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
Invested
$270.39
Value
$243.47
PnL
-$16.12
Record
48%
912-980 (1892)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$182.94
Value
$84.57
PnL
+$1.1
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$54.88
Value
$56.97
PnL
+$2.09
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
poshposh<$100Invested
$37.51
Value
$37.09
PnL
-$4.32
Record
59%
10125-7117 (17242)
Invested
$25.06
Value
$26.2
PnL
+$1.3
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.