Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Daegu Pegasus vs. Anyang: O/U 161.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 45¢ · $47 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
$46.97
$29.46
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.58 | $28.08 | +$23.49 | 45% 12902-15667 (28569) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $10.43 | $16.32 | +$5.88 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.4¢ | $2.49 | $2.57 | +$0.08 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.