Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Anyang, while the market favors Sonic Boom (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Anyang vs. Sonic Boom

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Anyang (29%) · Anyang at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Anyang<1¢Sonic Boom>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Anyang

Consensus Traders

Anyang 29%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$344.42

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidAnyang at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anyang

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Sonic Boom 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anyang0%

Sonic Boom100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sonic Boom5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,079

Combined PnL+$356.16

Anyang2 traders

Total Value$20

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL-$700.57

Sonic Boom — 71%Anyang — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Anyang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSonic Boom 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Anyang 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Sonic Boomavg 43.6¢	$291.05	$469.18	+$178.13	59% 10125-7117 (17242)
BE betwithconvic	Sonic Boomavg 86.7¢	$255.93	$288.81	+$32.88	57% 484-366 (850)
TO torta.tech	Sonic Boomavg 40.3¢	$83.69	$190.55	+$112	63% 8129-4873 (13002)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Sonic Boomavg 38.3¢	$71.24	$100	+$28.76	47% 4555-5064 (9619)
US User7429<$100	Sonic Boomavg 85.3¢	$25.6	$29.99	+$4.39	55% 8295-6693 (14988)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Anyangavg 91.8¢	$20.57	$19.5	-$1.07	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
BI BIAVNCTR	Anyangavg 70¢	$700	$0.5	-$699.5	48% 234-251 (485)

poshposh

Sonic Boom

Invested

$291.05

Value

$469.18

PnL

+$178.13

Record

59%

10125-7117 (17242)

betwithconvic

Sonic Boom

Invested

$255.93

Value

$288.81

PnL

+$32.88

Record

57%

484-366 (850)

torta.tech

Sonic Boom

Invested

$83.69

Value

$190.55

PnL

+$112

Record

63%

8129-4873 (13002)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$71.24

Value

$100

PnL

+$28.76

Record

47%

4555-5064 (9619)

User7429<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$25.6

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$4.39

Record

55%

8295-6693 (14988)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Anyang

Invested

$20.57

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$1.07

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

BIAVNCTR

Anyang

Invested

$700

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$699.5

Record

48%

234-251 (485)

Research grade

AvoidAnyang at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Anyang

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Sonic Boom 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Anyang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSonic Boom 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Anyang 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anyang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.