Sendai 89ers vs. Tokyo Sunrockers

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sendai 89ers (60%) · Sendai 89ers at 76¢ · $324 held · ends Nov 7

Sendai 89ers76¢Tokyo Sunrockers24¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sendai 89ers

Consensus Traders

Sendai 89ers 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$323.63

Combined PnL

-$58.46

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 75.5¢

+51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSendai 89ers at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sendai 89ers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sendai 89ers76%

Tokyo Sunrockers25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sendai 89ers3 traders

Total Value$148.85

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$39.86

Tokyo Sunrockers2 traders

Total Value$98.19

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$18.6

Sendai 89ers — 60%Tokyo Sunrockers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bayupati	Sendai 89ersavg 50¢	$349.5	$131.06	-$43.69	51% 225-217 (442)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 25.9¢	$114.26	$97.24	-$17.02	50% 3859-3803 (7662)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Sendai 89ersavg 55.5¢	$77.99	$76.6	-$1.39	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
└ Sendai 89ers leg	Sendai 89ersavg 55.5¢	$48.83	$54.56	+$5.73
└ Tokyo Sunrockers leg	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 50.3¢	$29.16	$22.04	-$7.12
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Sendai 89ersavg 38¢	$6.46	$10.53	+$4.08	55% 1738-1429 (3167)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Sendai 89ersavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.25	-$0.25	59% 30449-21168 (51617)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 62.7¢	$2.53	$0.95	-$1.58	53% 4456-4025 (8481)

Bayupati

Sendai 89ers

Invested

$349.5

Value

$131.06

PnL

-$43.69

Record

51%

225-217 (442)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$114.26

Value

$97.24

PnL

-$17.02

Record

50%

3859-3803 (7662)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Sendai 89ers

Invested

$77.99

Value

$76.6

PnL

-$1.39

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

Both legs:

Sendai 89ers$48.8355.5¢+$5.73

Tokyo Sunrockers$29.1650.3¢-$7.12

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Sendai 89ers

Invested

$6.46

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$4.08

Record

55%

1738-1429 (3167)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Sendai 89ers

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

30449-21168 (51617)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$2.53

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

Research grade

AvoidSendai 89ers at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sendai 89ers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sendai 89ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.