Ryukyu Golden Kings vs. SAN-EN NeoPhoenix
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold SAN-EN NeoPhoenix (50%) · SAN-EN NeoPhoenix at 52¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
SAN-EN NeoPhoenix
4
SAN-EN NeoPhoenix 50%
$191.51
$10.66
Research grade
AvoidSAN-EN NeoPhoenix at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mr.Ape<$100 | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 42¢ | $67.81 | $83.95 | +$16.14 | 56% 727-567 (1294) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 51.2¢ | $80.13 | $75.68 | -$4.45 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 53¢ | $27.22 | $27.08 | -$0.14 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $4.8 | -$0.9 | 59% 30657-21368 (52025) |
Mr.Ape<$100Invested
$67.81
Value
$83.95
PnL
+$16.14
Record
56%
727-567 (1294)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$80.13
Value
$75.68
PnL
-$4.45
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
Invested
$27.22
Value
$27.08
PnL
-$0.14
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.9
Record
59%
30657-21368 (52025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.