Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ryukyu Golden Kings, while the market favors SAN-EN NeoPhoenix (69%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ryukyu Golden Kings vs. SAN-EN NeoPhoenix
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ryukyu Golden Kings (67%) · Ryukyu Golden Kings at 31¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Ryukyu Golden Kings
6
Ryukyu Golden Kings 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$59.03
40.9¢ → 31¢
-24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRyukyu Golden Kings at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors SAN-EN NeoPhoenix 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 46¢ | $706.35 | $767.78 | +$61.42 | 50% 2510-2492 (5002) |
 poshposh | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 49¢ | $118.45 | $133.52 | +$15.07 | 59% 10128-7124 (17252) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 25¢ | $125.02 | $105.02 | -$20 | 59% 30461-21177 (51638) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 47¢ | $101.52 | $104.86 | +$3.34 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
| └ Ryukyu Golden Kings leg | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 47¢ | $59.98 | $63.86 | +$3.88 | |
| └ SAN-EN NeoPhoenix leg | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 50.7¢ | $41.54 | $41 | -$0.54 | |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 42.8¢ | $25.7 | $26.4 | +$0.7 | 51% 6001-5695 (11696) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 43¢ | $10.72 | $12.47 | +$1.75 | 49% 19146-19539 (38685) |
 HRTrading<$100 | SAN-EN NeoPhoenixavg 50¢ | $4.15 | $4.77 | +$0.09 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$706.35
Value
$767.78
PnL
+$61.42
Record
50%
2510-2492 (5002)
poshposhInvested
$118.45
Value
$133.52
PnL
+$15.07
Record
59%
10128-7124 (17252)
Invested
$125.02
Value
$105.02
PnL
-$20
Record
59%
30461-21177 (51638)
Invested
$101.52
Value
$104.86
PnL
+$3.34
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
Both legs:
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$25.7
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$0.7
Record
51%
6001-5695 (11696)
Invested
$10.72
Value
$12.47
PnL
+$1.75
Record
49%
19146-19539 (38685)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3
CTRRyukyu Golden Kings — $767.78
poshposh
SAN-EN NeoPhoenix — $133.52
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRRyukyu Golden Kings — $105.02
LeLynxMalynx
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tradecraft
CTRRyukyu Golden Kings — $26.4
omnibus-076daa
CTRRyukyu Golden Kings — $12.47
HRTrading
SAN-EN NeoPhoenix — $4.77