Kobe Storks vs. Nagasaki Velca

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nagasaki Velca (71%) · Nagasaki Velca at 100¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 7

Kobe Storks<1¢Nagasaki Velca>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nagasaki Velca

Consensus Traders

Nagasaki Velca 71%

Total Value

$157.24

Combined PnL

-$151.06

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNagasaki Velca at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nagasaki Velca

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kobe Storks0%

Nagasaki Velca100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nagasaki Velca5 traders

Total Value$143.32

Total Shares395

Combined PnL-$115.45

Kobe Storks2 traders

Total Value$13.92

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$35.61

Nagasaki Velca — 71%Kobe Storks — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Nagasaki Velca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNagasaki Velca 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNagasaki Velca 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nagasaki Velca 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Nagasaki Velcaavg 66¢	$98.06	$50.52	-$52	51% 3927-3841 (7768)
VeryLucky888<$100	Nagasaki Velcaavg 68.9¢	$78.71	$46.65	-$32.07	58% 41846-30383 (72229)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Nagasaki Velcaavg 68.9¢	$66.15	$32.64	-$36.39	58% 28668-21156 (49824)
poshposhCTR<$100	Kobe Storksavg 19.5¢	$48.53	$13.91	-$34.62	59% 10125-7117 (17242)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Nagasaki Velcaavg 73¢	$7.3	$10	+$2.7	59% 30459-21177 (51636)
HRTrading<$100	Nagasaki Velcaavg 34.2¢	$1.21	$3.52	+$2.31	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Kobe Storksavg 4¢	$1	$0.01	-$0.99	47% 4555-5064 (9619)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$98.06

Value

$50.52

PnL

-$52

Record

51%

3927-3841 (7768)

VeryLucky888<$100

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$78.71

Value

$46.65

PnL

-$32.07

Record

58%

41846-30383 (72229)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$66.15

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$36.39

Record

58%

28668-21156 (49824)

poshposhCTR<$100

Kobe Storks

Invested

$48.53

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$34.62

Record

59%

10125-7117 (17242)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$7.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.7

Record

59%

30459-21177 (51636)

HRTrading<$100

Nagasaki Velca

Invested

$1.21

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$2.31

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Kobe Storks

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.99

Record

47%

4555-5064 (9619)

Research grade

AvoidNagasaki Velca at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nagasaki Velca

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Nagasaki Velca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNagasaki Velca 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNagasaki Velca 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nagasaki Velca 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nagasaki Velca wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.