Chiba Jets vs. Toyama Grouses

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Toyama Grouses (63%) · Toyama Grouses at 55¢ · $401 held · ends Nov 7

Chiba Jets46¢Toyama Grouses54¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Toyama Grouses

Consensus Traders

Toyama Grouses 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$401.12

Combined PnL

$30.64

Smart Money Entry

36.7¢ → 54.5¢

+49% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidToyama Grouses at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toyama Grouses

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiba Jets46%

Toyama Grouses55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toyama Grouses5 traders

Total Value$287.01

Total Shares676

Combined PnL+$37.42

Chiba Jets3 traders

Total Value$44.72

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$6.77

Toyama Grouses — 63%Chiba Jets — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Toyama Grouses. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Toyama Grouses) and the top 1000 (3 on Chiba Jets) disagree here.

ctrToyama Grouses 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedToyama Grouses 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiba Jets 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Toyama Grousesavg 36¢	$140.38	$204.73	+$64.34	50% 2509-2491 (5000)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 39.6¢	$81.64	$69.39	-$12.25	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
└ Chiba Jets leg	Chiba Jetsavg 62.2¢	$31.08	$37.5	+$6.42
└ Toyama Grouses leg	Toyama Grousesavg 39.6¢	$50.57	$31.9	-$18.67
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 40¢	$45.6	$28.5	-$17.1	50% 3859-3803 (7662)
VeryLucky888	Toyama Grousesavg 37¢	$137.62	$28.5	-$10.26	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 71¢	$33.38	$26.99	-$4.41	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
tradecraft<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 36¢	$16.6	$17.98	+$1.38	51% 5997-5693 (11690)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 73¢	$14.61	$12.11	-$2.5	59% 30449-21168 (51617)
US User7429<$100	Toyama Grousesavg 32.2¢	$8.25	$7.3	-$0.95	55% 8283-6684 (14967)
poshposhCTR<$100	Chiba Jetsavg 69¢	$5.06	$5.62	+$0.14	59% 10106-7093 (17199)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$140.38

Value

$204.73

PnL

+$64.34

Record

50%

2509-2491 (5000)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$81.64

Value

$69.39

PnL

-$12.25

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

Both legs:

Chiba Jets$31.0862.2¢+$6.42

Toyama Grouses$50.5739.6¢-$18.67

NatoAlfista<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$45.6

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$17.1

Record

50%

3859-3803 (7662)

VeryLucky888

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$137.62

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$10.26

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$33.38

Value

$26.99

PnL

-$4.41

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

tradecraft<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$16.6

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$1.38

Record

51%

5997-5693 (11690)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$14.61

Value

$12.11

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

30449-21168 (51617)

User7429<$100

Toyama Grouses

Invested

$8.25

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.95

Record

55%

8283-6684 (14967)

poshposhCTR<$100

Chiba Jets

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.14

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

Research grade

AvoidToyama Grouses at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Toyama Grouses

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Toyama Grouses. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Toyama Grouses) and the top 1000 (3 on Chiba Jets) disagree here.

ctrToyama Grouses 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedToyama Grouses 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiba Jets 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toyama Grouses wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.