Akita Northern Happinets vs. Altiri Chiba

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Altiri Chiba (57%) · Altiri Chiba at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Akita Northern Happinets31¢Altiri Chiba69¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Altiri Chiba

Consensus Traders

Altiri Chiba 57%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$183

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 69¢

+33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAltiri Chiba at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Altiri Chiba

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Akita Northern Happinets31%

Altiri Chiba69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Altiri Chiba4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,182

Combined PnL+$355.19

Akita Northern Happinets3 traders

Total Value$308.33

Total Shares995

Combined PnL-$172.19

Altiri Chiba — 57%Akita Northern Happinets — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Altiri Chiba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akita Northern Happinets) and the top 1000 (6 on Altiri Chiba) disagree here.

whaleAltiri Chiba 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpAltiri Chiba 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAkita Northern Happinets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkita Northern Happinets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Altiri Chiba 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Altiri Chibaavg 51.9¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$334.91	50% 210-207 (417)
VeryLucky888CTR	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 48.3¢	$464.32	$186	-$107.67	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
38 38791873984189CTR	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 47.5¢	$199.5	$121.2	-$64.01	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
MA manoamano<$100	Altiri Chibaavg 52.7¢	$48.89	$64	+$15.11	51% 465-448 (913)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Altiri Chibaavg 50¢	$49.93	$52.63	+$3.99	50% 3799-3760 (7559)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Altiri Chibaavg 49¢	$18.23	$19.47	+$1.17	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
poshposhCTR<$100	Akita Northern Happinetsavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.13	-$0.51	59% 9909-6885 (16794)

Kch-Temp

Altiri Chiba

Invested

$1,013.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$334.91

Record

50%

210-207 (417)

VeryLucky888CTR

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$464.32

Value

$186

PnL

-$107.67

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

38791873984189CTR

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$199.5

Value

$121.2

PnL

-$64.01

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

manoamano<$100

Altiri Chiba

Invested

$48.89

Value

$64

PnL

+$15.11

Record

51%

465-448 (913)

NatoAlfista<$100

Altiri Chiba

Invested

$49.93

Value

$52.63

PnL

+$3.99

Record

50%

3799-3760 (7559)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Altiri Chiba

Invested

$18.23

Value

$19.47

PnL

+$1.17

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

poshposhCTR<$100

Akita Northern Happinets

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.51

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

Research grade

AvoidAltiri Chiba at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Altiri Chiba

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Altiri Chiba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akita Northern Happinets) and the top 1000 (6 on Altiri Chiba) disagree here.

whaleAltiri Chiba 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpAltiri Chiba 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAkita Northern Happinets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkita Northern Happinets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Altiri Chiba 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Altiri Chiba wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.