Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dijon, while the market favors Nancy (56%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Dijon (-9.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dijon (89%) · Dijon at 44¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30

Dijon44¢Nancy56¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Dijon

Consensus Traders

Dijon 89%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$240.79

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 43.5¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidDijon at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dijon

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Nancy 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dijon44%

Nancy56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dijon8 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares11,134

Combined PnL-$240.5

Nancy1 trader

Total Value$32.36

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$0.29

Dijon — 89%Nancy — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Dijon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDijon 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDijon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dijon 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Dijonavg 46¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$150	47% 2470-2777 (5247)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Dijonavg 45¢	$999.99	$966.66	-$44.44	49% 3917-4111 (8028)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Dijonavg 45¢	$999.99	$966.66	-$33.33	51% 3921-3837 (7758)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Dijonavg 46¢	$93.84	$88.74	-$5.1	50% 3803-3762 (7565)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Dijonavg 45.5¢	$91	$87	-$4	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Dijonavg 45¢	$80.93	$78.3	-$2.63	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nancyavg 57¢	$32.65	$32.36	-$0.29	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Dijonavg 45.9¢	$26.09	$25.01	-$1.28	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	Dijonavg 43¢	$24.63	$24.92	+$0.29	45% 608-746 (1354)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Dijon

Invested

$2,759.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$150

Record

47%

2470-2777 (5247)

NotradecopyCTR

Dijon

Invested

$999.99

Value

$966.66

PnL

-$44.44

Record

49%

3917-4111 (8028)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Dijon

Invested

$999.99

Value

$966.66

PnL

-$33.33

Record

51%

3921-3837 (7758)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Dijon

Invested

$93.84

Value

$88.74

PnL

-$5.1

Record

50%

3803-3762 (7565)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Dijon

Invested

$91

Value

$87

PnL

-$4

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Dijon

Invested

$80.93

Value

$78.3

PnL

-$2.63

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nancy

Invested

$32.65

Value

$32.36

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Dijon

Invested

$26.09

Value

$25.01

PnL

-$1.28

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

gt7238CTR<$100

Dijon

Invested

$24.63

Value

$24.92

PnL

+$0.29

Record

45%

608-746 (1354)

Research grade

AvoidDijon at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dijon

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Nancy 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Dijon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDijon 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDijon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dijon 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dijon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.