Skyliners Frankfurt vs. FC Universitatea Cluj
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Skyliners Frankfurt (75%) · Skyliners Frankfurt at 100¢ · $835 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Skyliners Frankfurt
4
Skyliners Frankfurt 75%
$835.16
$286.97
57.4¢ → 100¢
+74% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSkyliners Frankfurt at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Skyliners Frankfurtavg 60.5¢ | $459.51 | $759.49 | +$299.98 | 72% 1547-605 (2152) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Skyliners Frankfurtavg 43.5¢ | $62.81 | $46.24 | -$16.57 | 50% 3678-3654 (7332) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Skyliners Frankfurtavg 45.4¢ | $23.09 | $29.3 | +$6.21 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | FC Universitatea Clujavg 1¢ | $2.79 | $0.14 | -$2.65 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
Invested
$459.51
Value
$759.49
PnL
+$299.98
Record
72%
1547-605 (2152)
Invested
$62.81
Value
$46.24
PnL
-$16.57
Record
50%
3678-3654 (7332)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.09
Value
$29.3
PnL
+$6.21
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.79
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$2.65
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.