Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Maxima Roma, while the market favors BC Siauliai (83%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BC Siauliai vs. Maxima Roma
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Maxima Roma (57%) · Maxima Roma at 17¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Maxima Roma
7
Maxima Roma 57%
$1.1K
-$26.42
53.8¢ → 17¢
-68% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMaxima Roma at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors BC Siauliai 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | BC Siauliaiavg 43.6¢ | $423.98 | $470.44 | +$46.46 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Maxima Romaavg 45.4¢ | $374.58 | $284.68 | -$89.9 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Maxima Romaavg 69.4¢ | $172.75 | $179.62 | +$8.87 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Maxima Romaavg 70¢ | $136.78 | $142.64 | +$5.86 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | BC Siauliaiavg 50¢ | $44.66 | $43.77 | -$0.89 | 50% 3715-3689 (7404) |
 HRTrading<$100 | BC Siauliaiavg 50.1¢ | $14.11 | $17.18 | +$3.07 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Maxima Romaavg 45¢ | $3.35 | $3.46 | +$0.11 | 60% 9374-6357 (15731) |
Invested
$423.98
Value
$470.44
PnL
+$46.46
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$374.58
Value
$284.68
PnL
-$89.9
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$172.75
Value
$179.62
PnL
+$8.87
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$136.78
Value
$142.64
PnL
+$5.86
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$44.66
Value
$43.77
PnL
-$0.89
Record
50%
3715-3689 (7404)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.11
Value
$17.18
PnL
+$3.07
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.11
Record
60%
9374-6357 (15731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.