Rigas Zelli vs. Le Mans Sarthe Basket
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Le Mans Sarthe Basket (43%) · Le Mans Sarthe Basket at 56¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 11
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Avoid
Le Mans Sarthe Basket
7
Le Mans Sarthe Basket 43%
$44.4K
-$455.49
52¢ → 55.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLe Mans Sarthe Basket at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Le Mans Sarthe Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR fraagenCTR | Rigas Zelliavg 48¢ | $20.9K | $20.5K | $-1.3K | 45% 65-81 (146) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 52¢ | $12.6K | $13.5K | +$850.68 | 50% 1243-1243 (2486) |
DR dribblingbanana69 | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 52¢ | $10.4K | $10.4K | +$0 | 49% 309-327 (636) |
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100 | Rigas Zelliavg 48¢ | $27.64 | $27.06 | -$0.58 | 54% 1184-1024 (2208) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100 | Rigas Zelliavg 45.9¢ | $18.72 | $19.17 | +$0.45 | 50% 1304-1315 (2619) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Rigas Zelliavg 47¢ | $5.2 | $5.2 | +$0 | 50% 19928-20296 (40224) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 53¢ | $2.64 | $2.59 | +$0.1 | 51% 11480-10851 (22331) |
Invested
$20,900.34
Value
$20.5K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
45%
65-81 (146)
Invested
$12,638.73
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$850.68
Record
50%
1243-1243 (2486)
Invested
$10,400
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
309-327 (636)
Invested
$27.64
Value
$27.06
PnL
-$0.58
Record
54%
1184-1024 (2208)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$19.17
PnL
+$0.45
Record
50%
1304-1315 (2619)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
19928-20296 (40224)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
11480-10851 (22331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
fraagen
CTRRigas Zelli — $20.5K
Gooooooollllllllll
Le Mans Sarthe Basket — $13.5K
dribblingbanana69
Le Mans Sarthe Basket — $10.4K
rabbitfoot1
CTRRigas Zelli — $27.06
0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69
CTRRigas Zelli — $19.17
omnibus-076daa
CTRRigas Zelli — $5.2
iWasEnough
Le Mans Sarthe Basket — $2.59