Niners Chemnitz vs. JL Bourg Basket

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Niners Chemnitz (14%) · Niners Chemnitz at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Niners Chemnitz61¢JL Bourg Basket39¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Niners Chemnitz

Consensus Traders

Niners Chemnitz 14%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$50.63

Research grade

AvoidNiners Chemnitz at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Niners Chemnitz

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Niners Chemnitz61%

JL Bourg Basket39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Niners Chemnitz1 trader

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,659

Combined PnL+$100.69

JL Bourg Basket6 traders

Total Value$999.46

Total Shares2,632

Combined PnL-$151.32

Niners Chemnitz — 14%JL Bourg Basket — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Niners Chemnitz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJL Bourg Basket 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNiners Chemnitz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJL Bourg Basket 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJL Bourg Basket 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000JL Bourg Basket 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Niners Chemnitzavg 56.8¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$100.69	46% 16-19 (35)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	JL Bourg Basketavg 42.9¢	$856.07	$747.75	-$108.32	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
BA BayupatiCTR	JL Bourg Basketavg 43¢	$120.4	$114.8	-$5.6	51% 193-189 (382)
tradecraftCTR<$100	JL Bourg Basketavg 43.3¢	$79.03	$68.49	-$10.54	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	JL Bourg Basketavg 41¢	$26.65	$26.65	+$0	50% 3715-3689 (7404)
VeryLucky888CTR	JL Bourg Basketavg 44.9¢	$235.94	$25.44	-$24.7	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
HRTradingCTR<$100	JL Bourg Basketavg 43¢	$18.49	$16.34	-$2.15	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

viper0310

Niners Chemnitz

Invested

$2,648.28

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$100.69

Record

46%

16-19 (35)

UpTheBluesCTR

JL Bourg Basket

Invested

$856.07

Value

$747.75

PnL

-$108.32

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

BayupatiCTR

JL Bourg Basket

Invested

$120.4

Value

$114.8

PnL

-$5.6

Record

51%

193-189 (382)

tradecraftCTR<$100

JL Bourg Basket

Invested

$79.03

Value

$68.49

PnL

-$10.54

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

JL Bourg Basket

Invested

$26.65

Value

$26.65

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3715-3689 (7404)

VeryLucky888CTR

JL Bourg Basket

Invested

$235.94

Value

$25.44

PnL

-$24.7

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

HRTradingCTR<$100

JL Bourg Basket

Invested

$18.49

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$2.15

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

AvoidNiners Chemnitz at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Niners Chemnitz

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Niners Chemnitz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJL Bourg Basket 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNiners Chemnitz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJL Bourg Basket 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJL Bourg Basket 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000JL Bourg Basket 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Niners Chemnitz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.