Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BC Neptunas Klaipeda, while the market favors Napoli Basket (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BC Neptunas Klaipeda vs. Napoli Basket

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold BC Neptunas Klaipeda (71%) · BC Neptunas Klaipeda at 0.1¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 4

BC Neptunas Klaipeda<1¢Napoli Basket>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Consensus Traders

BC Neptunas Klaipeda 71%

Total Value

$104.46

Combined PnL

$9.9

Research grade

AvoidBC Neptunas Klaipeda at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Napoli Basket 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BC Neptunas Klaipeda0%

Napoli Basket100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Napoli Basket2 traders

Total Value$65.42

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$5.02

BC Neptunas Klaipeda5 traders

Total Value$39.04

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$4.89

Napoli Basket — 29%BC Neptunas Klaipeda — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HRTrading<$100	Napoli Basketavg 84¢	$33.18	$37.82	+$4.64	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 39¢	$29.64	$29.64	+$0	50% 3716-3689 (7405)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Napoli Basketavg 60.2¢	$27.22	$27.6	+$0.38	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
poshposhCTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 3.1¢	$3.12	$7.01	+$3.88	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 33¢	$0.99	$1.16	+$0.18	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 0.1¢	$0.05	$0.92	+$0.87	50% 2545-2588 (5133)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 3.5¢	$0.35	$0.3	-$0.05	59% 30098-20824 (50922)

HRTrading<$100

Napoli Basket

Invested

$33.18

Value

$37.82

PnL

+$4.64

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3716-3689 (7405)

UpTheBlues<$100

Napoli Basket

Invested

$27.22

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

poshposhCTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$3.12

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$3.88

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

2545-2588 (5133)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

30098-20824 (50922)

Research grade

AvoidBC Neptunas Klaipeda at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Napoli Basket 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC Neptunas Klaipeda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.