Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold BC Lietkabelis Panevezys, while the market favors Ulm Basketball (93%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. Ulm Basketball
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold BC Lietkabelis Panevezys (40%) · BC Lietkabelis Panevezys at 7.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys
5
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys 40%
$1.5K
$206.11
49.3¢ → 7¢
-86% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBC Lietkabelis Panevezys at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Ulm Basketball 93%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 39.5¢ | $348.05 | $520.36 | +$172.31 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 59.9¢ | $492.02 | $484.78 | -$7.24 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LS LSS1 | Ulm Basketballavg 77.2¢ | $377.65 | $408.6 | +$30.95 | 72% 1534-600 (2134) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Ulm Basketballavg 32.9¢ | $39.93 | $49.73 | +$9.8 | 50% 3675-3651 (7326) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Ulm Basketballavg 40.2¢ | $14.88 | $15.17 | +$0.29 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$348.05
Value
$520.36
PnL
+$172.31
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$492.02
Value
$484.78
PnL
-$7.24
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$377.65
Value
$408.6
PnL
+$30.95
Record
72%
1534-600 (2134)
Invested
$39.93
Value
$49.73
PnL
+$9.8
Record
50%
3675-3651 (7326)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.88
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.