Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Le Mans Sarthe Basket, while the market favors Hapoel Jerusalem (85%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Le Mans Sarthe Basket vs. Hapoel Jerusalem
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Le Mans Sarthe Basket (25%) · Le Mans Sarthe Basket at 15¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Le Mans Sarthe Basket
4
Le Mans Sarthe Basket 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$6.25
Research grade
AvoidLe Mans Sarthe Basket at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Hapoel Jerusalem 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Hapoel Jerusalemavg 73.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$78.31 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
| └ Hapoel Jerusalem leg | Hapoel Jerusalemavg 73.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$95.33 | |
| └ Le Mans Sarthe Basket leg | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 31.3¢ | $311.09 | $328.11 | +$17.02 | |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Le Mans Sarthe Basketavg 32¢ | $354.3 | $365.66 | +$11.36 | 55% 1688-1393 (3081) |
 VeryLucky888 | Hapoel Jerusalemavg 67.5¢ | $302.04 | $268 | -$3 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Hapoel Jerusalemavg 68¢ | $40.94 | $40.34 | -$0.6 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Hapoel Jerusalemavg 69.8¢ | $23.86 | $25.49 | -$1.51 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$1,432.64
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$78.31
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Both legs:
Invested
$354.3
Value
$365.66
PnL
+$11.36
Record
55%
1688-1393 (3081)
VeryLucky888Invested
$302.04
Value
$268
PnL
-$3
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$40.94
Value
$40.34
PnL
-$0.6
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.86
Value
$25.49
PnL
-$1.51
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.