Derthona Basket vs. Rostock Seawolves

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Derthona Basket (50%) · Derthona Basket at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Derthona Basket77¢Rostock Seawolves23¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Derthona Basket

Consensus Traders

Derthona Basket 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$39.98

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 77¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidDerthona Basket at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Derthona Basket

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Derthona Basket77%

Rostock Seawolves23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Derthona Basket3 traders

Total Value$466.22

Total Shares622

Combined PnL+$13.63

Rostock Seawolves3 traders

Total Value$158.5

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$53.61

Derthona Basket — 50%Rostock Seawolves — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 41.7¢	$402.1	$616.84	+$214.74	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
└ Rostock Seawolves leg	Rostock Seawolvesavg 41.7¢	$290.58	$463.27	+$172.69
└ Derthona Basket leg	Derthona Basketavg 24.3¢	$111.52	$153.57	+$42.05
OM omnibus-076daa	Derthona Basketavg 71.9¢	$291.32	$303.83	+$12.51	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
VeryLucky888	Derthona Basketavg 78.6¢	$106.46	$105.75	-$0.71	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Rostock Seawolvesavg 49.4¢	$141.46	$100.2	-$41.26	59% 30106-20832 (50938)
poshposh<$100	Derthona Basketavg 65.3¢	$54.81	$56.64	+$1.83	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 22¢	$31.02	$43.71	+$0.71	50% 3717-3691 (7408)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Rostock Seawolvesavg 72.8¢	$27.65	$14.59	-$13.05	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$402.1

Value

$616.84

PnL

+$214.74

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Both legs:

Rostock Seawolves$290.5841.7¢+$172.69

Derthona Basket$111.5224.3¢+$42.05

omnibus-076daa

Derthona Basket

Invested

$291.32

Value

$303.83

PnL

+$12.51

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

VeryLucky888

Derthona Basket

Invested

$106.46

Value

$105.75

PnL

-$0.71

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$141.46

Value

$100.2

PnL

-$41.26

Record

59%

30106-20832 (50938)

poshposh<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$54.81

Value

$56.64

PnL

+$1.83

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$31.02

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$0.71

Record

50%

3717-3691 (7408)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Rostock Seawolves

Invested

$27.65

Value

$14.59

PnL

-$13.05

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidDerthona Basket at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Derthona Basket

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Derthona Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.