CB 1939 Canarias vs. Reyer Venezia

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CB 1939 Canarias (60%) · CB 1939 Canarias at 100¢ · $629 held · ends Nov 4

CB 1939 Canarias>99¢Reyer Venezia<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CB 1939 Canarias

Consensus Traders

CB 1939 Canarias 60%

Total Value

$628.78

Combined PnL

$8.25

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCB 1939 Canarias at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CB 1939 Canarias

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CB 1939 Canarias100%

Reyer Venezia0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CB 1939 Canarias3 traders

Total Value$593.78

Total Shares611

Combined PnL+$21.57

Reyer Venezia2 traders

Total Value$35

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$13.32

CB 1939 Canarias — 60%Reyer Venezia — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	CB 1939 Canariasavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$499.75	+$0.25	99% 10524-53 (10577)
poshposh<$100	CB 1939 Canariasavg 62.7¢	$64.26	$84.77	+$20.51	60% 9411-6401 (15812)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Reyer Veneziaavg 23.3¢	$42.68	$18.03	-$7.02	58% 40808-29511 (70319)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Reyer Veneziaavg 24¢	$23.28	$16.97	-$6.31	50% 3719-3692 (7411)
HRTrading<$100	CB 1939 Canariasavg 75.2¢	$8.45	$9.26	+$0.81	53% 3109-2775 (5884)

looppau

CB 1939 Canarias

Invested

$499.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

99%

10524-53 (10577)

poshposh<$100

CB 1939 Canarias

Invested

$64.26

Value

$84.77

PnL

+$20.51

Record

60%

9411-6401 (15812)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Reyer Venezia

Invested

$42.68

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$7.02

Record

58%

40808-29511 (70319)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Reyer Venezia

Invested

$23.28

Value

$16.97

PnL

-$6.31

Record

50%

3719-3692 (7411)

HRTrading<$100

CB 1939 Canarias

Invested

$8.45

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

3109-2775 (5884)

Research grade

AvoidCB 1939 Canarias at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

CB 1939 Canarias

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CB 1939 Canarias wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.